The actual EBITDA per hectare after selling 2024 harvest output across the six main crops reached $446/ha, compared to the initial forecast of $402/ha at the beginning of the year. At that stage, farmers had sold 72% of their wheat, 65% of sunflower, and 64% of corn and soybeans. These figures are based on Agrohub’s survey of 14 Ukrainian agroholdings managing a total of 1.7 million hectares across 8 macro-regions of Ukraine.
Thus, actual performance almost fully confirmed the projected income growth driven by a favorable price dynamic at the start of the 2025 calendar year.
Compared to the 2023 season — when actual EBITDA stood at just $129/ha — the 2024 results indicate that the market is gradually recovering toward higher price levels, directly improving crop profitability.
The most notable improvement occurred in wheat, which returned to profitability with EBITDA rising from –$101/ha in 2023 to $244/ha in 2024.
Corn also showed a major rebound — reaching $625/ha versus $38/ha a year earlier — largely due to the restoration of export logistics. After two years of logistical constraints, Ukrainian corn regained access to maritime export routes.
Barley EBITDA more than doubled from $53/ha to $121/ha, while sunflower nearly doubled from $392/ha to $724/ha.
Among other oilseeds, soybean EBITDA rose moderately from $211/ha to $259/ha, and rapeseed increased from $452/ha to $533/ha.
These figures reflect a systemic recovery in the profitability of Ukraine’s agribusiness sector after the volatile 2023 season. Higher global crop prices, more stable export flows, and faster completion of sales were key contributing factors.
Whereas many companies finished selling their 2023 harvest only by late summer, most had completed 2024 sales by June, capitalizing on a favorable market window and locking in better prices.
Average crop prices in the 2024 season versus 2023 changed as follows:
- Corn: +5.6% ($190/t vs $180/t)
- Sunflower: +3.9% ($553/t vs $532/t)
- Wheat: +3.5% ($179/t vs $173/t)
- Rapeseed: +2.1% ($480/t vs $470/t)
- Barley: +0.7% ($154/t vs $153/t)
The only exception was soybean, which declined by 11.5% ($354/t vs $400/t). In the first half of 2025, the market faced a correction as global record harvests, higher domestic supply, seasonal sales growth, and a slowdown in exports pressured prices.
“Price remains the key driver of EBITDA, but results depend on a combination of pricing timing and sales speed. The main factor behind 2024’s strong performance was that actual prices exceeded conservative forecasts. Selling post-harvest leftovers generated additional income, as market prices typically hit their lows during harvest and rise afterward. Producers’ cautious expectations proved underestimated, and the actual market delivered significantly better financial outcomes,”
noted Oksana Bobrova, Head of the Agrohub Benchmarking division.
The forecast and actual performance indicators for 2024 crop profitability are based on Agrohub’s research conducted among 14 Ukrainian agroholdings cultivating 1.7 million hectares across 8 macro-regions. Forecast data were collected between January and March 2024, and actual data between July and August 2024.
