In many sectors of the Russian economy, there are signs of mass bankruptcies of enterprises. Among the industries with the greatest number of problems, analysts single out telecommunications, air and land transport, shipbuilding and aircraft construction, construction, forestry and logging, warehousing, and mining services.
Russian companies currently have no opportunity to obtain relatively cheap financing (10–15%). In such conditions, companies have sharply limited levers for operational regulation of their financial condition. As a result, problems arise with solvency, which leads to bankruptcy procedures.
A mass wave of bankruptcies in the Russian Federation should be expected as early as the second quarter of 2025.
Bankruptcies in the Russian industrial sector
Russian industrial enterprises were sounding the alarm in the summer of 2024 about possible bankruptcy due to the inability to purchase critically important chemical raw materials abroad, including in "friendly" countries. Then 20 large Russian companies in the automotive, construction, and chemical industries sent a corresponding letter to the government.
The entire Russian coal industry is on the verge of bankruptcy. The largest coal mining regions in the Russian Federation have faced a sharp reduction in tax revenues from business due to the problems of coal companies that are incurring losses, losing exports, and are forced to reduce production. The main coal region — the Kemerovo region, which accounts for 60% of hard coal production and about 80% of coking coal — recorded a collapse in income tax revenues by 2.5 times (by 59%). According to Rosstat, every second coal company in the Russian Federation became unprofitable, and the balanced financial result of the entire industry became negative: in January-September 2024, coal miners worked in the red by 91.3 billion rubles, although a year ago they received more than 350 billion rubles in profit for the same period.
At the end of 2024, the Moscow Arbitration Court declared bankrupt JSC "Ralf Ringer" - one of the largest manufacturers and sellers of shoes in Russia under the Ralf Ringer brand. The company's structure included four factories in Russia and a network of over 1,500 stores.
At the end of 2024, the bankruptcy of one of the largest chip manufacturers - the company "Angstrem" (Zelenograd) began in Russia. The plant was a landmark for Russia and was to become the largest player in the production of microchips. It was supervised by the former Minister of Communications Leonid Reiman, who was close to Vladimir Putin. He received state funding of $1 billion — in 2008 his company attracted a credit line from VEB in the amount of 815 million euros to create a production of processors, smart cards, and electronic passports. The project was supported by the government and the Security Council. Having accumulated more than 100 billion rubles in debt, Angstrem suddenly stopped paying on loans.
In the fall of 2024, JSC Ladoga House-Building Plant was declared bankrupt — the largest Russian plant for the production of CLT panels used in wooden house-building, which could provide 700-800 thousand sq. m of housing annually.
In February 2025, the accounts of the largest beer producer in the Russian Federation and taxpayer of the Ulyanovsk region, Trekhsosensky LLC, were frozen in the bankruptcy case of Trekhsosensky Plant LLC, which is part of the same group.
PJSC Rossetі, which transmits and distributes electricity in many Russian republics, predicts the bankruptcy of its subsidiary Rosseti Siberia. In the context of rising interest rates in 2025, Rosseti Siberia is forced to completely stop financing investment and repair programs. Rosseti Siberia's accumulated loss has already amounted to more than 24 billion rubles; by the end of 2024, the debt to EBITDA ratio exceeds 6.
Bankruptcies in the Russian infrastructure construction
Russian companies engaged in the construction of highways will face mass bankruptcies in 2025.
Since 2024, there has been a trend towards a significant reduction in the volume of road construction work, which will become especially acute in 2025 after the completion of some sections of highways and the lack of new financing.
The total revenue of companies in 2024 fell by more than 40% compared to 2022, and the balance of contracted work from 2024 to 2027 decreased from 55% to 10%.
The financial performance of companies has also deteriorated due to increased costs for construction materials, fuel, employee salaries, as well as an increase in debt burden due to an increase in the key rate and the rise in the cost of leasing contracts. All this led to a drop in the profitability of the industry’s enterprises to 2.6-3.3% in 2024.
Bankruptcies in the housing development sector in the Russian Federation
In 2025, there is a risk of mass bankruptcy of housing developers in the Russian Federation against the background of a decrease in consumer demand and an increase in the cost of loans for investors. Currently, 114 million sq m of housing is being sold in Russia. In November 2024, only 2 million sq m of housing was sold. This is a very alarming fact, which indicates that the real estate sale period is almost six years with a construction period of just over two. These four years are the cornerstone of all financial models of developers now, and servicing the loan load is increasing.
Bankruptcies among shopping centers in the Russian Federation
In the context of a sharp increase in costs and increased competition from online platforms, approximately 25% of all shopping centers (TCs) in Russia have reached a pre-bankruptcy state and may close in 2025.
The income of shopping centers in 2024 fell sharply. The key reason for financial problems, in addition to the departure of some large foreign tenants after the start of the major war in Ukraine, was the rapid increase in interest rates on commercial loans due to the policy of the Central Bank.
Now it is problematic for shopping centers to close existing loan agreements and they are completely inaccessible to new loans. Hence the problems with both profitability and the ability to maintain buildings in proper condition and conduct reconception. There is also a significant increase in the tax burden of shopping centers. Currently, about half of shopping mall revenues go to taxes, including VAT, social security contributions, and property tax.
Bankruptcies in the Russian logistics sector
Most Russian companies involved in road freight transportation ended 2024 with losses, and approximately 30% of them are threatened with bankruptcy in 2025.
"If 100 rubles are invested in a flight, and at the finish the company earned 83 rubles, then we can talk about a negative profitability of 17%," said the president of the Russian transport company Iteko. He said that in such a situation, companies find themselves bankrupt due to an increase in costs by 11%, a weakening of the ruble and an increase in loan and leasing payments after the central bank raised the key rate to 21%.
Bankruptcies in the Russian air transportation sector
Due to the sanctions imposed in 2025, more than 30 airlines in Russia, which provide 26% of passenger transportation within the country, may go bankrupt.
Russian airlines ended the first half of 2024 with a total operating loss of 8.6 billion rubles.
Air carriers are facing bankruptcy due to accumulated debts for leasing foreign aircraft. In 2025, the Russian government allowed debts on them to be written off. However, these amounts will be subject to a 25% income tax.
At the same time, only large airlines were able to buy back leased aircraft with the funds of the National Welfare Fund: Aeroflot, Ural Airlines, S7 Airlines.
Bankruptcies in the Russian IT sector
In January 2025, LLC "National Center for Informatization" (NCI), a subsidiary of the state corporation "Rostec", filed for financial insolvency. The company had the status of a "single center of competence in the field of digital technologies" and was responsible for the implementation of important state IT projects (information systems for the Pension Fund of Russia, Russian Post, Rosatom, the Safe City system, and others).
IT distributor BERKS is going to file for bankruptcy of the IT solutions supplier PAO Softline, which it controls, due to a delay on the part of one of the government customers.
A calming pill from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
At the same time, in February 2025, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina is trying to smooth out the growing excitement and assures that a wave of bankruptcies is not expected in the country: "Business in general remains financially stable, the volume of restructuring has not yet increased significantly, the share of bad loans is low. There is only an increase in applications for restructuring in the small and medium-sized business segment," the head of the Bank of Russia reported.
"We do not expect a wave of bankruptcies. Of course, there are heavily indebted companies for which the increase in the cost of debt servicing is an important factor, a factor that significantly reduces their profits, but for most companies the financial situation primarily depends on the growth of costs," Nabiullina said. At the same time, according to her, it may worsen if the main costs associated with raw materials, materials, labor, increased tariffs, more expensive transport logistics, in particular due to sanctions, continue to grow at the same pace. The growth of these costs is a consequence of overheated demand, an indicator of which is high inflation.
