2025 became the first year in which it was possible to say with some confidence that Ukraine’s real estate sector had stopped operating in a constant “firefighting” mode and had begun moving toward recovery. Demand became more predictable, investors more cautious, and developers more disciplined in their decisions.
Despite the war, the displacement of millions of people, rising construction material costs, and logistical constraints, the market proved it could not only hold its ground but also adapt to a new reality. The year’s main trend was a slow but systemic return of trust—without which no large-scale reconstruction is possible.
Construction: From Chaotic Completion to Structured Development
After the sharp decline in 2022, when a large share of construction activity effectively stopped, the industry gradually emerged from stagnation. 2023 and 2024 were years of partial project “unfreezing,” while 2025 demonstrated how the market behaves amid prolonged uncertainty—but without panic.
According to data for the first half of the year, the pace of housing commissioning slowed somewhat compared to the same period in 2024. Ukraine commissioned 51,557 apartments (down 6.7% year-on-year) with a total area of 4.27 million square meters (down 6.4%). In Kyiv, commissioned housing fell by 22% to 0.49 million square meters, while the Kyiv region became the leader by number of new apartments, surpassing nearly 10,000 units.
Full-year statistics for 2025 are not yet available, but it is highly likely that the country will end the year in the range of 7.5–8.0 million square meters of commissioned housing. This is below pre-war levels and likely lower than in 2024. However, what matters is not only the absolute volume, but the fact that the sector is stabilizing under new conditions. The market is shifting from chaotic “finishing whatever we can” to a more structured approach—prioritizing projects, selecting locations more carefully, and accounting for the end buyer’s purchasing power.
Why the Recovery Is Not Uniform
Regional differences became even more pronounced in 2025 than in 2024. Western regions, Kyiv and its surrounding area, central cities, and frontline territories are effectively operating in different realities.
Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zakarpattia have become major centers of demographic gravity. In 2022–2024, these regions absorbed millions of internally displaced people, and some of them not only stayed but began planning their lives there for years. This created steady demand for both home purchases and rentals.
Those who initially viewed relocation as temporary gradually moved toward buying decisions. Another important factor is that these regions benefit from more stable logistical routes for construction materials from Europe, supporting construction activity.
Kyiv shows a different picture. Demand is returning, but more slowly than many expected two years ago. Housing commissioning in 2025 will most likely remain around the 2024 level or even slightly lower. New regulatory requirements, the digital registry, and stricter oversight reduced the number of high-risk developers, but also slowed the launch of new phases.
Kyiv is also among the most expensive regions for development, with cost pressure and risk felt more acutely. Not all developers are ready to start new projects under these conditions. Many buyers, in turn, prefer to wait, tracking the hryvnia exchange rate, and increasingly favor ready-to-move-in housing rather than early-stage “pit” purchases. This forces developers to act with maximum caution.
In central regions—Dnipro, Poltava, Vinnytsia—demand has not disappeared, but has become much more restrained. Some buyers shifted to the secondary market, where they can find completed apartments with a lower entry price. Others are taking a wait-and-see stance, hoping for large-scale reconstruction programs and new support tools. As a result, the primary market is growing very cautiously—around 1–3% per year—while investment activity remains muted.
The most difficult situation remains in frontline regions. New projects are barely starting, and commissioning occurs sporadically. In most cases, this involves completing older pre-war assets or implementing state programs for rebuilding damaged housing. Today, it is government initiatives—not market demand—that sustain any movement there.
The Square Meter Got More Expensive: The Full Cost Picture
Housing price growth in 2025 was moderate but steady. It was not a “price shock,” but it was not stagnation either. This reflects a new construction cost model.
After 2022, Ukraine lost part of its large production capacity in the east, and many materials became import-dependent. Imports mean higher volatility and greater sensitivity to logistics. In 2025, everything became more expensive: concrete rose by about 15%, metal by more than 20%, finishing materials by 8–12%, and electrical/cable products by around 20%.
Logistics became not only more expensive but less predictable. Delivery routes for materials from the EU changed several times, and some depended on border conditions or security risks. In some projects, transportation costs increased by 20–30%. Western regions, closer to EU borders, felt this pressure less than the center or south, partly explaining why western Ukraine was able to build more actively and at a lower final cost per square meter.
Labor shortages are another major factor. Since 2022, many Ukrainian construction workers have moved abroad. To retain those who stayed and gradually attract new workers, companies had to raise wages by an average of 12–15%, and even more in some regions—inevitably increasing costs.
Safety standards are also reshaping economics. Since 2023, shelters, backup generators or solar panels, reinforced structures, energy-efficient façades, and ventilation systems with heat recovery have shifted from optional upgrades to baseline expectations in most primary-market segments. This package of solutions adds another 10–13% to project costs. Developers cannot ignore this reality if they want to stay in the market long term.
Secondary Prices Are Rising Faster, While New Builds Grow More Slowly
In 2025, overall housing prices increased by about 8–12% on average in hryvnia terms. But this average masks two different markets—primary and secondary—moving at different speeds. Unlike several pre-war years, the secondary market rose faster, for logical reasons.
First, the secondary market faced a shortage of quality supply. Owners of modern apartments in newer complexes with underground parking, proper shelters, and resilient infrastructure were not rushing to sell. At the same time, pressure on major cities such as Kyiv, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk continued to grow, while genuinely liquid inventory remained limited.
As a result, ready-to-move-in apartments became a magnet for buyers. People who in 2020–2021 were willing to buy at early construction stages increasingly prefer “less risk, more certainty.”
Second, investors gradually returned to the secondary market in 2025. They are not mass-market investors, but they are now present in sufficient numbers to influence pricing. For investment, they choose completed apartments in cities with strong rental rates, not early-stage projects. Rents in Kyiv and Lviv increased enough that capitalization of rental income automatically pushed asset values higher. When a one-bedroom apartment in Kyiv rents for UAH 17–18k per month, owners are no longer willing to sell at pre-war valuations.
Against this backdrop, primary-market prices rose more modestly. Construction costs increased, but developers could not fully pass them on to buyers. The upper price ceiling is defined by purchasing power, which is constrained by incomes and mortgage costs.
In 2025, lending rates remained relatively high, meaning sharp price increases would have eliminated a large share of potential demand. Developers had to balance real costs with buyer psychology and affordability. As a result, new builds rose by 5–9%, while secondary prices in some segments and regions increased by 10–12% or more.
Who Bought Real Estate in 2025
2025 marked the period when structural demand fully took shape. People stopped buying housing “just in case” and increasingly did so with clearly articulated goals—living, relocating a business, or generating stable rental income.
The main force remained owner-occupiers, accounting for 60–70% of transactions. These are primarily families who either moved to a new city or became firmly established where they ended up after 2022. For them, housing is less an investment and more a basic need. They evaluate building autonomy, shelter availability, proximity to work, schools, and public transport. Price matters, but it is not always decisive; compliance with new safety and comfort standards is often more important.
Investors in 2025 were fewer than in peak pre-COVID and pre-war years, but they did not disappear. Their behavior changed. They are now far more selective: focusing on developer reputation, high readiness levels (typically 70%+), clear delivery timelines, and predictable rental yield. Investment deals are estimated at 15–20% of the market, but this group often sets the tone for the most liquid assets.
A separate important group is internally displaced persons (IDPs). For them, buying a home is both an economic and psychological decision. Some IDPs who do not plan to return soon have committed to long-term life in western regions and Kyiv. Their share of housing purchase demand is estimated at 10–12%, often centered on compact but high-quality apartments with good transport links and proximity to essential services.
Mortgages: They Finally Started to Work
A few years ago, a functioning mortgage market during wartime seemed unrealistic. But 2025 showed that even under high risk and macro volatility, mortgages can become a working tool.
Commercial mortgage rates held around 15–17%, but the key driver was state-backed programs offering significantly lower rates of 7–9%. These programs enabled thousands of families to buy homes that would otherwise have remained out of reach. As a result, the number of mortgage transactions increased by an estimated 35–40% year-on-year, albeit from a relatively low base.
Mortgages matter not only because they unlock deferred demand. They also make the market less dependent on exchange-rate swings, encourage developers to complete projects rather than freeze them, and support both completed housing sales and late-stage new-build purchases. The greater the mortgage share, the more stable transaction volumes become—and the easier it is for developers to plan future projects.
Hotel Investments: The Carpathians and Bukovel as a New Capital Magnet
2025 demonstrated that, despite all risks, the hotel sector became one of the most dynamic investment areas in Ukrainian real estate. The Carpathians—especially Bukovel and nearby locations within a 30–50 km radius—have become the most predictable tourism market in the country. The resort operates year-round, generates steady traffic, and this creates conditions for new hotel and apartment-hotel projects. Average hotel occupancy in the region is estimated at 65–70%, comparable to European mountain resorts.
One proof point is Bukovel’s growth pace: in 2024, it attracted around 2.5 million tourists, and business revenues within the resort exceeded UAH 1 billion in a single January. For investors, this signals not only stable demand, but potential returns in the range of 6–8% annually in hard currency, assuming professional management. As a result, the Carpathians are increasingly seen not as an emotional “house in the mountains” purchase, but as a distinct segment for more institutional-style investment.
A new trend also emerged: market professionalization. Management companies and specialized platforms entered the region, treating hotel and apartment assets as investment products—with income forecasts, occupancy analytics, legal support, and standardized operating models. This lowers the entry barrier for private investors and builds a clearer, more transparent business logic for the sector.
At the same time, hotel investments remain a higher-responsibility market. Some projects are overpriced, and real yields do not always match marketing promises. In 2025, the market shifted from emotional to rational investment: the focus moved to operating efficiency, service quality, the management company, and location fundamentals. Even so, the Carpathians remain one of the few real estate segments where demand consistently exceeds supply, and long-term potential depends more on tourism recovery than on domestic economic volatility.
Outlook for 2026
2026 has strong chances to become not just a continuation of cautious growth, but a year of reconstruction scaling. The only question is how quickly—and in what format—the market will be able to unlock the potential accumulated over the past three years.
Housing commissioning is expected to increase to 7.8–9.0 million square meters, supported by access to international financing, a shift from point reconstruction to systemic programs rebuilding entire districts and cities, and a gradual reduction in risk for developers. Prices will most likely continue to grow moderately, around 8–10% in hryvnia. Developers can no longer raise prices sharply, but elevated costs still push them upward.
Under a favorable macro scenario, mortgage costs may gradually decline. If inflation and the exchange rate remain under control, lending rates could fall toward 13–14%, while the share of mortgage transactions rises. This would slightly improve affordability for the middle class and support sales in the economy and comfort segments.
A separate major theme for 2026 is reconstruction, which may become the construction industry’s key growth engine. In some cities, reconstruction volumes could exceed new construction and reach up to 50% of the market. This will include rebuilding damaged buildings, modernizing older housing stock, insulation upgrades, structural reinforcement, and adapting buildings to new safety and energy-efficiency standards. For developers and contractors, this is a distinct, complex, but promising direction.
For a country that is simultaneously fighting and building its future, real estate is not only about square meters and profitability. It is a core mechanism of economic resilience—and 2025 proved that the foundation for a post-war development leap is already being laid.
