As the war in Ukraine continues, a potentially explosive trend is taking shape in global investment policy: the administration of Donald Trump is signaling readiness to resume large-scale economic ties with Russia — in the event of a cessation of hostilities. This is discussed in The New York Times article titled “With ‘Tremendous’ Deals at Stake, Trump Is Bringing Russia in From the Cold.”
The Kremlin is actively fueling this interest, promoting a narrative of “tremendous” opportunities (in Trump’s own words) for American business. Some investors are already testing the waters.
First Signal: A Deal with a Russian Energy Giant
Texas investor Gentry Beach, reportedly linked to the Trump family, has announced the signing of a preliminary agreement with Russian energy company Novatek to use its technology for liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Alaska.
The project remains at an early stage, and financial details have not been disclosed. However, the negotiations themselves are notable: this is the first known case since 2022 of a new business project being formalized between a U.S. investor and a major Russian company.
Novatek is subject to partial U.S. sanctions, though its parent structure is not on the full sanctions list, allowing negotiations to proceed legally.
Beach’s project involves using Novatek’s technology to produce LNG in Alaska’s Arctic region, monetizing gas reserves on the North Slope — an area long considered complex but strategically significant.
The initiative could compete with plans to build an 800-mile pipeline system to transport gas to southern Alaska.
If realized, the cooperation would mark a significant example of U.S.–Russia technological interaction in the energy sector, even amid ongoing geopolitical confrontation.
Political Context: “Deals After Peace”
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United States and Europe largely severed economic ties with Moscow. American companies exited the Russian market en masse.
With Trump’s return to the White House, however, the tone has shifted. The president has repeatedly stated that, in the event of an end to the war, Russia would present “enormous opportunities” for U.S. business.
The Kremlin, in turn, has publicly estimated potential investment cooperation with the United States at as much as $14 trillion.
At the same time, the Trump administration has officially stated that any large-scale restoration of economic ties would only be possible after the war ends. Nevertheless, markets appear to be positioning in advance.
- A signal of possible normalization of relations. Even partial sanctions relief would reopen access to significant resources, particularly in the energy sector.
- Geoeconomic reorientation. Russia holds some of the world’s largest gas reserves. Joint LNG projects — including the use of Russian technology in Alaska — could reshape global gas flows.
- A test of market appetite for early entry. Investors with a high risk tolerance may attempt to move first, anticipating a political shift.
Gentry Beach has openly stated that “those who enter earlier than others usually earn the most.”
Risks Remain Extremely High
Despite the shift in rhetoric, fundamental risks persist:
- sanctions against Russia’s energy sector remain in place;
- political uncertainty regarding the end of the war continues;
- corporate America remains broadly skeptical about returning to Russia;
- regulatory restrictions could be tightened at any time.
Experts note that, at present, access to the Russian market appears largely limited to players with strong political connections. For most businesses, the door remains effectively closed.
