What hryvna rate should we expect: prognosis to 08.07.2015

What hryvna rate should we expect: prognosis to 08.07.2015

Analytics of Ukrainian money market (Atlant Finance & InVenture Investment Group): prognosis of hryvna rate to 08.07.2015

During all week there were no surprises at the biddings as they have passed as expected. NBU and market is obviously satisfied by the price of American currency to the extent of 21 UAH.  Wary of antidumping of dollar and euro rate, NBU limited capacity of importers currency demand and established double-sided quotations in the frame of 21,00/23,00 UAH per dollar. Currency demand slightly intensifies till Friday.

 Ukrainian news about negotiations with our private creditors just confuses the citizens of the country. We consider, that Ukraine will finally see the resolution of the board of directors of IMF about disbursement of IMF tranche equal to $1,7 bln in the second part of  July, after which it can carry on the negotiations till September and make summer payments. And in case of negative decision of IMF and if government with creditors will not find the common ground, the default will be announced. It will in its turn cause a negative impact on national currency. That is why our currency market is under the pressure of uncertainty in operations with exchange commitments of government.

People continue to actively  change currency because of lack of hryvna moneys, and this tendency has chances on lasting for next 2-3 month. Currently is observed the lack in hryvna liquidity among people and entrepreneurs. This factor, most fortunately become the reason of rate stabilization but not the decrease of interest for currency as a store of value. This situation will last until NBU reduces the rate from 30%, and from this moment we expect the increase of dollar rate.

In autumn NBU will have to abolish the administrative measures in holding the official hryvna rate or to completely destroy the business and economics of the country. The put-up demand problem is also still preserved. Currently the objective hryvna rate according to our calculations should be the diapason of 21,0-22,0 UAH per dollar. 

Situation developments for next few days:

06.07.2015 diapason 20,9-21,7 UAH per dollar;
07.07.2015 diapason 20,9-21,7 UAH per dollar;
08.07.2015 diapason 20,9-21,7 UAH per dollar.

Situation on cash market:
06.07.2015 diapason 21,9-23,4 UAH per dollar;
07.07.2015 diapason 22,0-23,5 UAH per dollar;
08.07.2015 diapason 22,0-23,5 UAH per dollar.

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