Ukraine discharged its Eurobond coupon of $120 mln, which means that the default is off for now.
Till the end of 2015 Ukraine have to effect 4 payments:
23 August — coupon payment of $60 mln,
23 September — Eurobond repayment of $500 mln,
13 October — Eurobond repayment of $600 mln,
20 December — Russian credit repayment of $3 bln.
The country is going to get closer to the technical default in the end of September, if till then the government won`t manage to make an agreement with creditors.
IMF direction approved another tranche of financial help for Ukraine, equal to $17, 5 bln. According to the Bloomberg agency the tranche was approved, after that, Verkhovna Radapassed all the needed laws, and the negotiations with creditors about loan restructuring achieved progress. The formal permission on receiving the tranche Ukraine will obtain on July 31st. The session of IMF executive board is planned on that day.
Ukraine signed an a contract with the WB and Japan about the credit arrangement of $500 mln and$300 mln pro tanto.
In autumn NBU will be forced to abolish administrative measures of keeping the official hryvna rate or completely destroy business and economy of the country. The problem of pent-up demand also remains unsolved. Currently the objective hryvna rate according to our calculations should be the 22,0-23,0 UAH per dollar diapason.
Situation developments for next few days:
27.07.2015 diapason 21,9-22,7 UAH per dollar;
28.07.2015 diapason 21,9-22,7 UAH per dollar;
29.07.2015 diapason 21,9-22,7 UAH per dollar.
Situation on the cash market:
27.07.2015 diapason 23,7-24,7 UAH per dollar;
28.07.2015 diapason 23,7-24,7 UAH per dollar;
29.07.2015 diapason 23,7-24,7 UAH per dollar.
