S&P Global Ratings has raised Ukraine’s long-term foreign-currency credit rating from “SD” (selective default) to “CCC+” and maintained a stable outlook. The upgrade follows the successful restructuring of part of Ukraine’s external commercial debt, including the exchange of GDP-linked warrants for new bonds maturing in 2032.
The “CCC+” rating indicates that Ukraine remains in the speculative category but is no longer considered to be in selective default.
The “+” modifier reflects relatively higher credit quality within the CCC category, implying slightly lower risk compared with lower-rated peers.
S&P’s decision became possible after the completion, in late December 2025, of the exchange of GDP warrants for new securities worth approximately $2.6bn, with maturities in 2030–2032. The transaction was supported by more than 99% of creditors and resolved the default on these instruments that arose after a missed payment in June 2025.
Ukraine had already completed the main restructuring of its external commercial debt amounting to $20.5bn (around 78% of total external debt) in September 2024, but an agreement with holders of GDP-linked warrants was reached only at the end of 2025.
Following the bond exchange, Ukraine’s external debt servicing needs have been significantly reduced to approximately $1bn per year over the next three years.
The first principal repayment on external bonds is not expected until 2029.
Markets viewed the upgrade as a positive signal: prices of Ukraine’s US dollar-denominated bonds increased, according to market sources, reflecting improved sentiment regarding default risk.
S&P assesses the current situation as follows:
- a small portion of debt (less than 2.5% of commercial debt) remains in default, but this is not expected to materially affect the government’s ability to service other obligations;
- international financial support, particularly from the EU and G7 countries, continues to mitigate risks to public finances;
- the war scenario assumes that intense hostilities may continue into 2026, with security risks remaining elevated.
The rating could be downgraded if:
- the security situation deteriorates significantly;
- a new large-scale restructuring of commercial debt becomes necessary.
Further rating upgrades would require improvements in the security environment and in medium-term macroeconomic prospects.
In addition to GDP-linked warrants, Ukraine still needs to complete:
- the restructuring of state-guaranteed Ukrenergo eurobonds worth $825m (a preliminary agreement has been reached, but completion has been postponed until early 2026);
- the restructuring of a $700m external commercial loan from Cargill.
