According to the Institute for Economics and Forecasting UNAS the amount of external funding of Ukraine in 2015 will be $18,4 bln, considering the increments of reserve assets, and without it – 8,4 bln. It was reported by the director of the Institute, Valeriy Geyets.
One of the ways for covering this deficit is a reconstruction of the foreign debt of the government sector , which, according to IMF, will lower the value of the debt in 2015, for $5,2 bln .
But even after the reconstruction of foreign debt, under the terms of prolongation or lowering of the main sum of the debt, the deficit of external funding of Ukraine, including the increments of reserves, will be approximately equal to $13,2 bln, thinks the author of the article.
He foresees that in 2016 Ukraine will need the external funding for covering the spread of external accounts and increments of reserve assets, equal to $10 bln.
Along with it IMF foresees the deficit of external funding of Ukraine in 2015 by the amount of $5,2 bln, which should be fully covered due to the reconstruction of the foreign debt.
This opinion, according to the author, is quite optimistic, but it differs from the traditional practice of IMF operations.
“ The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies estimates the deficit of external funding of Ukraine in 2015 to be $15 bln, and this estimations, as we can see, are correlating with ours” – says author.
“ In support of this we should notice that borrowing of the financial resources of this scale from outside is impossible, that`s why Ukraine needs reorganization and simultaneously remission of the part of a debt, which will affect the implementation of opportunities of its access to international financial markets” – writes Geyets.
The author also marked that according to the national accounts of 1996-2013, the net lending of Ukraine was equal to 122 bln.
“It means that means that Ukraine is a net lender of the world. From the Ukrainian economy was moved abroad the amount of financial resources, which, according to the current exchange rate is exceeding the annual GDP. This is the loss of the real investment resource, which should have provided the implementation of investment model of economic upturn” – writes Geyets.
According to him, the current orientation on resources of the foreign creditors, including international financial organizations, only intensifies the debt bondage, exit from which is going to be extremely burdensome.
The author also pays attention that as of the beginning of this year the gross external debt of Ukraine was equal to 127.1% GDP, which is twice the 65-pocent limit. Geyets thinks that the limit of leverage for Ukraine, considering the current level of its economy development, is 40-45% GDP.