Over the past 2–3 days, the debate has intensified, focusing on collective nuclear deterrence, reducing dependence on the United States, and potential investments in related capabilities.
The Trigger: Munich Security Conference
At the Munich Security Conference, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed that he is holding consultations with French President Emmanuel Macron regarding the idea of establishing a European nuclear deterrent. According to Merz, this is not about replacing NATO or the U.S. “nuclear umbrella,” but about strengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy in defense matters.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized that no one in Europe is proposing to abandon U.S. nuclear protection entirely, but discussions about strengthening continental defense are gaining momentum.
Different Approaches Among Political Leaders
Friedrich Merz (Germany) — initiated a strategic dialogue with France on the possibilities of European nuclear deterrence, stressing the importance of autonomy within NATO.
Emmanuel Macron (France) — France remains the only major nuclear power in the European Union. The leaders are considering expanding cooperation, including coordination of nuclear doctrine.
Keir Starmer (United Kingdom) — the Prime Minister of the UK, which also possesses nuclear weapons, expressed support for strengthening Europe’s defense ties and reducing military dependence on the United States.
Mark Rutte (NATO) — stated that European initiatives should complement U.S. guarantees, not replace them.
Karol Nawrocki (Poland) — declared that Poland should “move toward obtaining nuclear weapons” as part of strengthening its national security. The discussion concerns long-term strategic considerations rather than immediate withdrawal from international obligations.
Antti Häkkänen (Finland’s Minister of Defense) — welcomed the idea of a greater role for French or British nuclear deterrence across the continent.
Margus Tsahkna (Estonia’s Foreign Minister) — noted that NATO’s current nuclear deterrence system remains “the most credible and feasible option,” but long-term discussions about European autonomy are justified.
According to Bloomberg, European capitals are discussing the creation of their own nuclear deterrence mechanisms, including scenarios in which the United States may not always remain a reliable security guarantor. This represents a strategic shift in Europe’s perception of defense.
The debate also includes investment in comprehensive, turnkey capabilities that would ensure access to necessary technologies and infrastructure for nuclear deterrence.
What Does It Mean?
Europe is seriously rethinking its role in the nuclear domain. Whereas the continent previously relied almost entirely on the American nuclear umbrella within NATO, a new model is now being discussed in which Europeans possess more of their own strategic instruments.
Joint investments may become the next step, particularly in technologies and infrastructure required to modernize nuclear capabilities or develop autonomous deterrence mechanisms.
Political will and public support will be decisive factors. The path toward strengthening Europe’s nuclear posture remains complex, both legally and financially.
This issue may gain significant political and economic weight if discussions evolve into concrete financing and implementation plans in the field of security and defense.
