National Bank of Ukraine
The fall in Ukraine's GDP in 2022 will be 31.5%. This is almost 2 p.p. less than the National Bank predicted in the summer. Inflation in 2022 will be kept within 30% (the previous forecast was 31%). In addition, there is a chance that as early as the second quarter of 2023, the Ukrainian economy will start to come out of a tailspin. Growth in the coming years will be moderate - 4-5%.
“Significant loss of labor and production capacity, high world energy prices and significant import needs at the post-war recovery stage will slow down the economic recovery,” the NBU forecast says. The forecasts of the National Bank are based on the assumption that security risks in Ukraine will decrease significantly from mid-2023.
However, fighting and the threat of further escalation of the conflict remain the main risks to recovery. Additional difficulties will be associated with the critical situation in the energy sector, which may lead to shutdowns of large enterprises, which will have an extremely negative impact on GDP and on filling the state budget.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that Ukrainian GDP will grow by 1% in 2023. At the same time, inflation will be around 25%.
“The devastating social and economic impact of the war on Ukraine continues, resulting in a large number of civilian deaths, migration or internal displacement of a third of the population, enormous damage to infrastructure and productive capacity,” said IMF mission chief Gavin Gray.
The IMF expects that in such conditions, the Ukrainian economy will fall by 33% in 2022, and will stabilize next year. The base case assumes a 1% recovery.
The IMF notes that Ukraine will require significant international financial assistance for economic stability.
The EBRD predicts that Russia's war against Ukraine will reduce Ukraine's GDP by 30% this year.
For 2023, the EBRD cut its economic recovery forecast to 8% from 25% forecast in May, when significant recovery work was expected to continue.
The outlook is a sign of how much uncertainty about the future weighs on Ukraine's economic outlook. The risks to forecasts are exceptionally high, depending on the duration and intensity of the war.
Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital
According to Dragon Capital's updated forecasts in November 2022, Ukraine's GDP will decline by another 5% in 2023 after a 32% collapse in 2022.
This year, Ukraine's GDP will fall by 32%, worse than the previous estimate of 30%. “The deterioration is due to problems with the electricity supply,” Fiala said. – If in August most of our businesses showed approximately pre-war results, then in October we saw a reduction of 10% mom due to power outages. We are preparing for the fact that in such conditions we will have to work throughout the winter.
Next year, GDP will shrink by another 5%, he added. “This forecast is based on the fact that the hot phase of the war will last until the third quarter,” said the investment banker.
According to him, in 2023 Dragon Capital expects an average annual dollar exchange rate of UAH 38.5/$. The indicator at the end of the year is 43 UAH/$. “There is hope that Ukraine will receive $18 billion each from the EU and the US, as well as some funding from the IMF in the second half of the year,” Fiala said. “The overall level of external financing could be $42 billion, up from $32 billion this year.”
Dragon Capital expects international reserves at $27 billion at the end of 2022 (which is a fairly comfortable level) and $28 billion at the end of 2023.
Igor Mazepa, Concorde Capital
According to the founder of Concorde Capital, Igor Mazepa, “smart” economic growth in 2023 will be 5-10%. The hryvnia exchange rate will probably not cross the UAH/$50 mark next year. At the same time, the NBU is able to maintain the current official exchange rate of 36.6 UAH / $ at least until the middle of next year or even until the end of the war, Mazepa suggests. Igor Mazepa called 2023 the launching pad for the rise of the Ukrainian economy.