Odile Renaud-Basso, President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), discusses investments in Ukraine in 2026–2027, private sector financing, support for energy and logistics, war risk insurance, capital market development and the outlook for Ukraine's economy.
Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has invested nearly €11 billion in Ukraine. In 2026, the bank plans to provide approximately €2.7 billion in financing, with up to 80% expected to be directed to the private sector.
In an interview with Interfax-Ukraine, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso discussed the bank's investment priorities, opportunities to support Ukrainian businesses and the prospects for Ukraine's economic recovery.
EBRD Plans to Invest €2.7 Billion in Ukraine in 2026
— What were the main outcomes of your visit to Kyiv? What did you discuss with Ukrainian government officials?
— Ukraine is very important to the EBRD. Since the beginning of the war, we have invested nearly €11 billion. This year, we plan to invest approximately €2.7 billion.
The main topics of discussion were priorities: assessing the situation, identifying the country's financing needs for critical infrastructure, the public sector and other areas. When investing such substantial amounts, it is essential to understand how to accelerate project implementation and maximize efficiency.
A significant part of our activities involves the private sector. This year, we expect 80% of our financing to go to the private sector. We are meeting with clients, banks and other partners to understand their needs.
Many discussions currently focus on preparations for winter, the condition of energy infrastructure and the risks associated with intensified Russian attacks.
The reform agenda also remains an important priority. We work with state-owned enterprises, supporting corporate governance reform, the formation of supervisory and management boards, and improvements to executive appointment procedures.
— Have you seen improvements in corporate governance at state-owned enterprises?
— We have seen some progress, but the process has been uneven. Sometimes there are significant improvements, while at other times there are setbacks.
In several companies, supervisory and management boards are now being appointed through professional processes, involving external consultants and specialized nomination committees.
We have seen some progress at Energoatom, although several important decisions still need to be made. This is also important for Naftogaz, where the process appears to be proceeding according to plan.
What Will EBRD Financing for Ukraine Look Like in 2027?
— How much financing does the EBRD plan to provide to Ukraine in 2027?
— We are demand-driven, so financing volumes depend on the investment projects we identify and the needs of private sector clients. It is difficult to provide an exact figure at this stage.
I believe our investment capacity will remain at approximately the same level as this year.
However, we need to see whether our clients will continue investing or whether they will primarily need working capital and other forms of support.
Another important question is the appetite of banks. We actively use portfolio risk-sharing mechanisms under which we cover part of the risks associated with bank lending.
Bank lending volumes have increased significantly over the past few years. This has been one of the drivers of our growing activities.
The public sector also requires substantial investment. However, state-owned enterprises face limitations on borrowing and debt repayment capacity.
Therefore, continued financing will require external guarantees and support from international donors.
— Will the EBRD change its strategy in response to the latest escalation of the war?
— Our approach will remain unchanged: we will continue to be very flexible.
As a bank, we assess our own risks, determine how they can be covered and identify which risks we can accept.
I do not foresee any fundamental changes in our approach, although investment priorities may shift.
In previous years, we demonstrated considerable flexibility in supporting the energy sector during Russian attacks.
Now, given the situation in the Black Sea, there is renewed interest in ensuring the proper functioning of railways and roads connecting Ukraine with Europe, particularly Poland and Moldova.
This could lead to changes in investment priorities.
We will continue supporting Ukraine by accepting risks that do not jeopardize the bank's financial stability and working with donors to mitigate those risks.
Ukraine's Economy Is Slowing: Downside Risks to GDP Are Increasing
— The EBRD has lowered its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 to 1.5%. Other forecasts are even more pessimistic. Do you expect the economic situation to deteriorate further?
— We have clearly observed an economic slowdown in Ukraine since August, driven by intensified attacks on economic infrastructure.
Previously, these attacks primarily targeted the energy sector, but ports, logistics facilities, warehouses and production sites are now also being hit. There are additional problems affecting port operations and shipping in the Black Sea.
This is having a very negative impact on the economy.
The National Bank of Ukraine is considering several scenarios for how the situation may develop.
I can say that we still see more downside risks than opportunities for stronger economic growth.
EBRD Investments in Energy: Potential €150 Million Loan
— What role could the EBRD play in addressing the problems of Ukraine's electricity balancing market, where total financing needs are estimated at approximately €600 million?
— This is a major and important decision that we are discussing with the Minister of Energy and the government.
In my view, the Ukrainian authorities are genuinely prepared to implement this important structural reform, which will have a significant impact on the market.
It is a complex project, and we support it.
Our financing contribution could involve co-investment alongside other international financial institutions.
The EBRD could provide a loan of approximately €150 million, with another international financial institution covering an additional portion of the financing needs.
Substantial concessional financing from the European Union would also be required, as some accumulated liabilities cannot be financed entirely through loans.
EBRD Finances Railways, Roads and Logistics War Risk Insurance
— What mechanisms can the EBRD offer to address Ukraine's export logistics challenges? Will the bank finance new roads?
— We are actively working on logistics projects.
In particular, we signed a financing agreement with Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukraine's national railway operator. Previously, we allocated funds mainly to energy generation projects. However, given the damage to facilities and the need for liquidity, we redirected €130 million to provide working capital.
We are also implementing a major €300 million project to purchase locomotives. This is particularly important because a significant portion of the rolling stock has been damaged.
Another area is road construction. We are currently discussing priorities for implementing such projects.
In addition, together with local insurance companies, we launched a mechanism to cover war-related risks associated with transporting goods within Ukraine.
We have already provided insurance coverage for goods worth €500 million.
The mechanism is working quite well, so we are considering expanding it, including coverage for goods stored in warehouses.
— Ukrzaliznytsia is in default, while Ukrenergo is restructuring its Eurobonds. Does this create problems for financing?
— Of course, it is a problem. It is never pleasant to lend to a company that is in default or undergoing restructuring.
However, these companies have always met their obligations to us on time. This is very important given our status as an international financial institution.
We supported two government measures necessary to stabilize Ukrzaliznytsia.
The first is government compensation for public service obligations (PSO).
The second is an increase in freight transportation tariffs.
This is not a particularly popular decision, but it is important. A company must generate sufficient revenue to provide its services.
War Risk Insurance: A New Instrument to Support Businesses
— Ukrainian businesses need war risk insurance. What support mechanisms can the EBRD offer?
— We have developed a specialized product because providing war risk insurance is extremely challenging.
Initially, we focused on the transport sector, where there was virtually no relevant insurance market.
We also implemented several pilot projects within our banking portfolio.
We intend to expand this mechanism. The idea is that if a loan finances an investment, such as the construction of a new facility, and that facility is destroyed as a result of the war, the outstanding debt repayment amount could be reduced.
We call this mechanism Enterprise Security Enhancement (ESE).
It is somewhat similar to war risk insurance, but the difference is that it provides for a reduction in the borrower's debt obligations in the event of qualifying losses.
We continue developing such instruments to adapt them to the needs of Ukrainian clients and the economy.
— Is increasing taxes a mandatory condition for EBRD participation in a new war risk insurance mechanism?
— I do not think the EBRD will participate directly in an insurance fund because we are a bank and cannot finance a fund intended to pay compensation. We must ensure that the funds we provide are repaid.
At the same time, we are discussing which support mechanisms could be most effective.
I genuinely believe that some form of government compensation scheme is necessary. However, financial resources are limited.
It is not for me to decide whether taxes should be increased. What matters is determining who should benefit from the support, what impact it will have on the economy as a whole and exactly which problem it is intended to solve.
Ukraine's Capital Market: EBRD Supports Attracting a Strategic Investor
— What is the EBRD's position on establishing a new capital market infrastructure holding company in Ukraine and attracting a strategic investor?
— We consider this project very important for the future.
When the economy begins to recover, bank lending alone will not be sufficient. Companies will need to turn increasingly to capital markets to raise financing.
That is why we started this work together with the National Bank of Ukraine, the National Securities and Stock Market Commission and other market participants.
Our goal is to determine how different elements of capital market infrastructure should be integrated to create a more efficient system.
After that, we could consider attracting a strategic investor and stimulating market activity.
We are working closely with the National Bank of Ukraine on the relevant agreements and legislative changes. In particular, we are discussing the technical aspects of the reform with members of Ukraine's parliament.
— Is it necessary to have several potential strategic investors for the new holding company?
— It will be an open process. We will see who comes forward.
Will the EBRD Invest in Ukraine's DefenceTech Sector?
— Is the EBRD prepared to invest in Ukraine's defence industry?
— As a development bank, we do not invest directly in the military industry.
We have many shareholders with different positions, which creates certain restrictions.
— What about dual-use technologies, particularly drones that can be used for both military and civilian purposes?
— We are conducting a study of businesses working with dual-use technologies to better understand their structure and characteristics.
For example, drones have extensive military applications, but they can also be used for civilian purposes, including agriculture.
We need to determine what proportion of these companies' activities relates to the military sector and what proportion is civilian.
We have some opportunities to invest in dual-use technologies, but they are quite limited.
We are studying this sector to understand its future role in Ukraine's economy, the structure of these businesses and possible investment instruments.
We plan to complete the study within the next few months and present its findings at the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) in Tallinn at the end of January.
EBRD Aims to Raise €500 Million to Restore the Chornobyl Protective Structure
— How much financing does the EBRD plan to mobilize for restoring the New Safe Confinement at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant?
— We hope to raise €500 million. That is our target, and we would like to get as close to it as possible because this is a matter of safety.
We already have donor commitments covering approximately half of that amount.
In particular, the United States has committed $100 million. We also expect additional contributions.
Work is expected to begin in 2028, so financing needs to be secured in advance.
— How serious is the damage to the Chornobyl protective structure?
— A fire occurred as a result of the war, causing significant damage to the protective structure.
A temporary protection system has been installed, but it does not provide adequate protection against moisture, corrosion and other risks.
There is no immediate radiation danger, but the risks will increase if no action is taken.
The structure, which cost approximately €2 billion, was built with the participation of numerous international companies and contains complex specialized equipment.
If its functionality is not restored in time, a much more expensive reconstruction of the entire system may eventually be required.
Municipal Financing: €150 Million for Kyiv and Projects Across Ukraine
— How important are municipal projects to the EBRD? You have signed a €150 million agreement with Kyiv concerning the metro system.
— Municipalities are very important partners for us.
We have implemented projects in Lviv to improve the resilience of the transport system. We also have projects in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Ternopil and Kyiv.
Local authorities have significant responsibilities in transport, energy and water supply. These are precisely the areas on which we focus.
Last year, we also provided Kyiv with emergency liquidity support following attacks on combined heat and power plants to finance repairs and recovery.
Overall, we have financed municipal projects worth approximately €300 million. The new loan for Kyiv amounts to €150 million, representing a substantial financing commitment.
Does the EBRD Have Geographic Restrictions on Investments in Ukraine?
— Some companies say they are only willing to invest on the right bank of the Dnipro River or near Ukraine's western border. Does the EBRD have its own geographic restrictions?
— We have a map showing that our projects are distributed fairly evenly across Ukraine.
Of course, a significant share of business activity is concentrated in Kyiv, but we also invest in renewable energy and work with partners in different regions of the country.
Dnipro and Kharkiv are two of our strongest municipal clients, so we allocate substantial funding to them.
We also have private sector projects near the front line.
Therefore, our investments are not limited to the western or central regions of Ukraine.
