Participants of the discussion panel “Investing Despite the War” explored what sectors Ukrainian businesses are investing in today and which priorities banks consider the most promising. Will infrastructure and energy become the key drivers of recovery? And do agriculture and miltech still have room for further growth?
What investment directions are Ukrainian companies choosing right now, and which sectors do banks regard as most attractive? Is the West ready to provide unconditional support to Ukraine? Will rebuilding destroyed infrastructure and the energy sector truly become the main catalysts for economic revival? And what about agriculture and military tech — do they still have strong growth potential?
These questions became central to the large-scale event “Dialogues with NV: Business and the New Reality,” where entrepreneurs and financiers discussed the transformation of Ukraine’s economy during wartime.
Panel Participants:
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Oleksandr Povshedny, Chairman of the Management Board, ProCredit Bank
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Igor Mazepa, Founder & CEO, Concorde Capital
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Vadym Utkin, Advisor to the CEO, DTEK Renewables
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Artem Konik, Director of Commercial Operations, Philip Morris Ukraine
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Maksym Tsymbal, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board, Pivdennyi Bank
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Ihor Lisky, Founder, EFI Group
Oleksandr Povshedny, Chairman of the Management Board, ProCredit Bank
“Foreign colleagues still can’t believe that Ukraine didn’t halt payments when the full-scale invasion began. I’m extremely proud of the entire banking sector for achieving this. Another issue is business volumes. For example, at the beginning of 2022, our loan portfolio was twice as large as it was in 2024. Lending activity shrank dramatically. This happened for two reasons: banks were cautious and conservative, and clients were equally cautious. Taking loans during a full-scale war with massive uncertainty is difficult — demand simply wasn’t there.
Starting from 2024, lending has gradually begun to recover, and banks are increasingly open to new projects. Loan portfolios are rebuilding, and new businesses are emerging — though, to be frank, not all of them survive the horrors of war.
The Ukrainian banking sector remains profitable. Our loan portfolio quality is among the best on the market; 99.9% of our borrowers are small and medium-sized businesses. Having an NPL rate of 4–5% is excellent even in peacetime.
We never feared things would fall apart. We are launching many new projects. In terms of business volumes, we haven’t returned to pre-war levels yet, but it feels like we're polishing our car in the garage before driving out. When large-scale reconstruction begins, our expertise, resources, and capital will be needed. We’re preparing for better times.
Our core sector remains agriculture — about 48% of our portfolio. The agricultural sector has adapted quite successfully. Yes, there were difficulties — droughts, excessive rainfall, poor harvests, supply disruptions — but the country is returning to pre-war production and export levels.
Industry is another important direction for us because it creates added value and requires long-term loans. But industrial companies adapt more slowly than agriculture, mostly due to logistics challenges and energy issues — even small outages cause major losses.
The IT sector is very promising. It adapted best to wartime realities thanks to digitalization and remote work. European clients continue placing orders and paying in foreign currency.
Energy is more complicated, but we see steady imports of new equipment. Many companies are borrowing to invest in renewable energy for self-consumption.”
Maksym Tsymbal, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board, Pivdennyi Bank
“Right now may be the best moment for businesses to seek financing from banks. Most financial institutions are open to cooperation, and conditions are highly favorable.
Business lending in Ukraine is growing at a record pace. In the first eight months of 2025 alone, business loan portfolios grew by UAH 114 billion — twice as much as last year. Pivdennyi Bank is demonstrating over 30% annual portfolio growth.
We chose not to wait for ‘better times.’ We continue active lending even during the war. This year, we expect portfolio growth of around UAH 9 billion — about 35%.
Around 30% of projects submitted to the bank are investment projects aimed at modernization, expansion, or launching new operations. The most active sectors are agriculture, logistics, energy, and processing industries. At the same time, more than 70% of business investment is financed with companies’ own funds — they accumulate liquidity and reinvest it.
A special focus today is the miltech sector, one of the fastest-growing in Ukraine. The defense industry is critical, developing at extraordinary speed with annual budgets exceeding one trillion hryvnias. There are now around 600 private defense companies operating in Ukraine. For banks, this creates new opportunities — lending, settlements, and FX operations.
We already work with companies in this sector and are expanding our capabilities to support defense-related businesses. We see strong potential here and plan to be an active financial partner for miltech clients.”
Vadym Utkin, Advisor to the CEO, DTEK Renewables
“How are energy markets forming today? I see two major groups: those who short volatility and those who play long on volatility.
Our market has recently taken off due to two factors. First — long-term Ukrenergo auctions for ancillary services, which create predictable cash flow for bank financing. Second — players who believe spreads will rise and see big upside in such operations, often mislabelled as ‘arbitrage.’ Battery storage systems will become a new asset class in our energy system. I expect around 500 MW of battery capacity to be commissioned by the end of this year and another 500 MW next year.
Looking at Europe, particularly Poland — still a heavily coal-based market — the EU is pressuring it to shift. They will succeed. Poland’s largest operator, PGE, is now building two of the largest battery storage systems in the country, each nearly 800 MW.
We must understand that a kilowatt-hour is not a homogeneous product — it varies each hour and will vary every 15 minutes once Ukraine transitions to 15-minute settlement periods like in the EU. Volatility will only grow.
A unique aspect of Ukraine’s energy system is our large base-load nuclear generation — built historically to supply the entire Eastern Bloc.”
Artem Konik, Director of Commercial Operations, Philip Morris Ukraine
“Investing during wartime is a fascinating topic because war is a crisis, but crises also bring opportunities.
Our investments fall into three key categories.
First — people. Since the start of the war, we have invested $25 million in supporting our employees. Around 100 colleagues relocated abroad and are now working in Philip Morris offices in Mexico, Brazil, Europe, Africa, and Asia. Meanwhile, we created new jobs in Ukraine and invested in employee development. Thirty percent of our staff live in frontline regions, so we run financial aid and mental-health support programs.
Second — product development. Over the past three years, we invested about $16 million in infrastructure for adult users of our smoke-free products. Demand remains strong.
Third — production. We are one of the few companies investing in manufacturing during the war. Last year, we opened a new $30 million factory in the Lviv region because we see strong long-term market potential.
However, the shadow market is a major issue. About 15–20% of cigarettes sold in Ukraine are illicit. As taxes constitute up to 80% of the retail price, the state loses at least 70% in revenue — around UAH 25 billion annually. Illicit vapes are an even bigger problem — 93% of the market is illegal, causing UAH 7.5 billion in losses and posing significant health risks.”
Igor Mazepa, Founder & CEO, Concorde Capital
“About 18 months ago, our team analyzed which sectors would boom after the war during reconstruction. In financial analysis, there is the concept of beta — industries with high beta collapse first in crises but are the first to rebound afterward. We identified three high-beta industries in Ukraine: banking, construction materials, and energy.
Banking is difficult due to state dominance and regulation. Construction materials — we already invested in Krivyi Rih Cement with OKKO Group. And energy — where we now see the strongest upward cycle.
Russia destroyed 8–10 GW of generation capacity — mostly flexible power. This has created extreme price volatility: when the sun shines and the wind blows, electricity is almost free; during peaks, prices spike to UAH 9–15/kWh. This trend will continue until the market stabilizes with new capacity.
I expect very active investment for at least two to three years. I already see hundreds of millions, maybe billions of dollars flowing into the sector. We’ve built an investor pool and will soon offer co-investment opportunities for smaller investors as well.”
Ihor Lisky, Founder, EFI Group
“Ukraine’s future depends on a new wave of industrialization. Without industrial development, the country will shrink dramatically — there will be fewer jobs, fewer taxes, and no backbone for growth.
Analysts say the construction sector will recover first. But how can we rebuild without our own production of glass or cement? Cement we have, but glass — we import 100%. In 2023, I wrote to the Security Service that importing glass from Belarus is essentially sabotage. Now we import from China, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Poland, and Romania. As a result, Ukrainians pay about 30% above European prices for glass.
We focus on projects that create added value — for example, sheet-glass production and a second plant producing high-protein additives for food and pharma.
Ukraine lacks project financing — almost entirely. Without it, we cannot compete with Poland or Romania. We’re now working with IFC, DFC, Ukraine Facility, and the EIB to push for proper project financing for strategic industries.
We already have IFC approval for one of our projects and expect to sign soon. German export agencies are also shifting their approach — earlier they capped financing for Ukraine at €10 million per project; now we’re discussing €120 million in equipment financing.
Everyone understands the war will end sooner or later. Ukraine will become part of the EU and one of the most attractive investment destinations. At least €200 billion in reparations and EU funding will flow into the country over the next decade. These funds will serve as a foundation for massive private investment.
The real question is whether Ukrainian business and the state will be ready. We have a tendency to spoil even good opportunities — but I hope this time we finally build the country we dream of.”
