The full-scale war has radically transformed Ukraine’s investment landscape. What was once considered market risk has now become a matter of operational resilience. For private equity, this is a moment of truth.
Before transitioning into private equity, I worked as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs in London within the Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) division covering the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications sector. We advised on complex cross-border transactions, strategic acquisitions, and initial public offerings (IPOs). Earlier in my banking career, I was also involved in sovereign bond issuances for Ukraine and Lithuania. That experience taught me how to build financial models, assess risks, and structure multi-layered transactions.
But 2022 revealed the difference between analysis and responsibility.
After the outbreak of the full-scale war, I temporarily joined our family agricultural business in Ukraine to help stabilize operations amid extreme uncertainty. Export routes were collapsing, logistics were changing weekly, and liquidity required daily oversight. Decisions had to be made quickly, often with incomplete information — and owned fully.
That was when I began to view private equity differently.
Later, in my work in private equity at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), this experience gained systemic meaning. Investing in high-risk markets demonstrates that long-term outcomes are defined not only by deal parameters or valuation levels, but by a company’s ability to adapt to structural uncertainty. In a volatile environment, this factor determines whether a business can maintain operational resilience and create sustainable long-term value.
What Has Changed for Investors
Ukraine’s M&A market has contracted in volume during the war, but it has not disappeared. Transactions continue to take place, although their structure and valuations have shifted significantly. Investors have become more selective and far more demanding regarding asset quality.
Key changes include:
1. Risk has become multidimensional.
It is no longer just about macroeconomics or currency volatility. It now includes employee safety, physical infrastructure, alternative logistics routes, and energy system resilience.
2. Management matters more than financial engineering.
Investors assess not only financial performance but also management’s ability to restructure operations during crisis. Flexibility, decision-making speed, and corporate governance quality are critical.
3. Investment horizons have extended.
Traditional exit routes — IPOs or strategic sales — have become less predictable. Funds must therefore focus on operational efficiency rather than relying solely on multiple expansion.
A Factor That Cannot Be Ignored
Experience in high-risk jurisdictions confirms that in times of crisis, capital follows not only returns but also predictability of the rules of the game. Beyond military risk, another critical factor influencing investment decisions is the predictability of legal enforcement.
Foreign investors closely monitor signals related to potential business pressure, prolonged criminal proceedings without procedural progress, asset freezes, or corporate conflicts that drag on for years. Even isolated cases can create a perception of systemic risk if they enter the public discourse.
Private equity operates with long-term horizons. Investors must be confident that property rights will be protected and disputes resolved in court — not in the media space.
An independent and effective judiciary is therefore not an abstract reform but a direct economic prerequisite for maintaining investor interest in Ukraine. Without it, the risk premium will remain elevated regardless of the military situation.
Where Are the Investment Opportunities?
Despite the risks, Ukraine retains strong competitive advantages.
Agriculture
One of the strongest sectors in Europe. Private equity can focus on modernization, processing, and value-added expansion.
Infrastructure and Reconstruction
The scale of future rebuilding will require a combination of public funding, international guarantees, and private capital. PE funds can act as operational partners in delivering large-scale projects.
Technology and Engineering
Ukraine’s strong technical education system and rapid adaptability create potential for globally competitive technology companies.
What Will Shape the Future of Private Equity
Ukraine’s private equity market will not evolve according to a classical peacetime model. Its trajectory will depend on three factors:
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tangible progress in judicial reform and protection of property rights;
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involvement of international financial institutions in mitigating war-related risks;
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strengthening corporate governance standards within Ukrainian companies.
The war has exposed systemic weaknesses but has also demonstrated the resilience of Ukrainian business. Today, private equity is not about aggressive capital structure optimization. It is about responsibility, governance, and the ability to operate under uncertainty.
And these qualities will determine who remains active in Ukraine not only after victory, but throughout the reconstruction period and the formation of a new economic model.
