Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotskyi, discussed the financial challenges facing the agricultural sector, access to financing and promising investment opportunities in an interview with Forbes Ukraine. In his view, dairy farming, biofuel production and food processing offer the strongest long-term investment potential.
InVenture presents an abridged version of the interview, focusing on investment opportunities, agribusiness economics and the outlook for Ukraine's agricultural sector.
"This Is the Most Challenging Period for Ukraine's Agricultural Sector Since the Early 2000s"
How difficult is the current situation in the agricultural sector?
The agricultural sector is entering a "perfect storm." This is probably the most difficult situation since the early 2000s.
The main challenges are uncertainty and financial pressure. Around 70% of agricultural production is exported, but current export capacity is only half of its normal level. As a result, one-third of production remains unsold, with no clear indication of when the situation might improve.
The situation was different in 2022. Agricultural producers had financial reserves following the record profitability of 2021. In the years that followed, the sector continued operating, paying wages and investing, but without building substantial reserves.
Financial Position of Agricultural Producers: Reserves Are Running Out
At the beginning of 2026, Ukrainian agricultural producers had approximately $5 billion in working capital resources. What is the situation now?
At the beginning of the year, approximately $2.7 billion of the $5 billion in working capital resources consisted of companies' own funds, while the remainder came from supplier trade credit.
As of October 1, approximately $2 billion remained in bank accounts, equivalent to $100 per hectare. However, these funds no longer represent reserves. They are being used to cover land lease payments, wages, loan servicing and other operating expenses.
According to our estimates, there will be no surplus cash reserves by January 1. In previous years, agricultural sector bank balances never fell below UAH 130–135 billion, or approximately $3 billion.
How accessible is bank financing for agricultural producers?
In August, the National Bank of Ukraine allowed banks to recognize 70% of the value of grain as collateral, compared with the previous 45%. This partially offset the decline in agricultural commodity prices.
For example, previously, one tonne of grain worth $200 could secure approximately $90 in financing. Now, with grain valued at $120–150 per tonne, banks can provide $84–105.
Agricultural producers have already secured UAH 135 billion in loans this year. Lending volumes are increasing by UAH 3–3.5 billion per week and are expected to reach UAH 150–160 billion by year-end.
Can government guarantees improve access to financing?
The government has allocated up to UAH 20.8 billion in state portfolio guarantees for 2026.
Under this mechanism, the state assumes part of the credit risk, allowing banks to finance agricultural businesses with insufficient collateral. However, banks still assess companies' financial condition and their ability to repay loans.
Export Restrictions Are Reshaping Agribusiness Economics
What is the actual capacity of alternative export logistics routes?
Under current conditions, 50% of normal export capacity is effectively the ceiling. We are operating within a range of 45–50%.
At the same time, the priority should be not only to increase physical export volumes but also to maximize the value of the products being transported.
For example, 140,000 tonnes of grain can be sold at approximately $200 per tonne, while the same volume of vegetable oil can be sold at $1,200 per tonne.
Therefore, giving logistics priority to higher-value-added products generates a significant economic benefit.
Three Most Promising Investment Opportunities in Ukraine's Agricultural Sector
If you were managing an agricultural company with annual revenue of $100 million, which three areas would you invest in over the next five years?
With annual revenue of $100 million, an investment budget of approximately $10 million would be reasonable.
First priority — dairy production and livestock farming.
An investment of $10 million could finance the construction of a dairy farm with 650–1,000 cows, representing the minimum economically viable scale.
However, the key constraint is the availability of qualified personnel. Without veterinarians, technical specialists and properly trained staff, even a modern dairy farm will struggle to operate efficiently.
With the right team in place, dairy production offers attractive long-term prospects. The same applies to cattle farming more broadly, as beef prices continue to rise.
Second priority — biomethane, bioethanol and biodiesel.
Agricultural companies with their own feedstock resources should consider investing in energy production from agricultural raw materials.
The focus is not on solar or wind power, but specifically on bioenergy, which enables agricultural companies to generate additional value from their own production.
Many agricultural businesses are already developing projects in this segment.
Third priority — food processing.
Ukraine has a substantial grain production base that will remain available over the long term.
Promising investment opportunities include flour milling, bakery products, biscuits and other processed foods, including products manufactured under supermarket private labels.
There is still significant import substitution potential in these segments. At the same time, the minister does not consider additional oilseed crushing capacity a priority, as Ukraine already has sufficient facilities in this sector.
How Agricultural Companies Should Adapt Their Investment and Business Strategies
What would you recommend to the owner of an agricultural company operating 10,000 hectares, with significant debt obligations and minimal profitability?
First — plan crop rotations at least two to three years ahead.
Companies should base their production plans on realistic sales opportunities. Under current conditions, they can expect to sell approximately two-thirds of their output: 30% domestically and 35% through exports.
For the remaining production, businesses should identify opportunities for internal use, such as livestock development, or reduce the corresponding planted areas.
Second — secure long-term export contracts.
It is currently possible to negotiate guaranteed deliveries through alternative logistics routes, including via Constanța, for periods of six months to one year.
Companies should aim to secure contracts covering at least one-third of future sales. This would provide predictable cash flow, even if potential profit margins are lower.
Third — build long-term relationships with suppliers.
Rather than constantly searching for the lowest spot-market prices, agricultural companies should prioritize reliable supplies and predictable costs.
Under current conditions, stable cash flow and long-term supplier relationships are becoming critical factors in maintaining business continuity and financial resilience.
