Russia's large-scale attacks on logistics infrastructure have reduced competitive warehouse stock in the Kyiv region to 1.05 million sq m, despite the completion of 150,000 sq m of new warehouse space. The severe shortage of available premises has driven rental rates up by 8–10%, according to research by EXPANDIA.
The warehouse and logistics real estate market in Kyiv and the surrounding region has experienced an unprecedented contraction in supply in 2026 as a result of Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure. According to a report released by EXPANDIA on October 28, 2026, total competitive warehouse stock has declined by 34% since the beginning of the year, falling to 1.05 million sq m.
As recently as the end of June 2026, competitive warehouse stock in the Kyiv region had recovered to its pre-war 2021 level of approximately 1.6 million sq m.
However, extensive destruction of warehouse facilities in July and August effectively reversed the market's recovery.
New Warehouse Development Fails to Offset Losses
Approximately 150,000 sq m of new warehouse space was completed in the Kyiv region during the first half of 2026, representing a 28% year-on-year increase.
However, as attacks on logistics facilities intensified, new construction increasingly shifted from expanding the market's total capacity to replacing destroyed infrastructure.
The loss of a significant proportion of existing warehouse facilities has resulted in a severe shortage of available space.
By the end of August 2026, the warehouse vacancy rate in the Kyiv region had fallen below 1%, effectively indicating that almost no quality warehouse space was available for immediate lease.
The shortage has been particularly acute in the multi-temperature warehouse segment, where supply was already limited before the latest disruptions.
Prime Warehouse Rents Rise to $5.7 per Sq M
The contraction in supply, combined with sustained tenant demand, has accelerated rental growth.
According to EXPANDIA, as of August 2026:
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Effective prime rents for dry warehouses increased by 8% since the beginning of the year to $5.7 per sq m per month, excluding VAT and operating expenses (OPEX).
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Average asking rents rose by approximately 10% year-to-date.
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Asking rents ranged from $4.7 to $6.0 per sq m per month, equivalent to UAH 210–270 per sq m.
Most lease agreements continued to be denominated in Ukrainian hryvnia, although transactions linked to US dollar equivalents were also recorded.
Relocations Account for 82% of Leasing Transactions
Despite the destruction of warehouse infrastructure, leasing activity in the Kyiv region continued to increase.
Gross warehouse take-up reached approximately 180,000 sq m in January–August 2026, up 6% compared with the same period in 2025.
However, the composition of demand changed significantly.
While leasing activity in the first half of the year was primarily driven by organic business growth, forced relocations resulting from military operations became the main driver in July and August.
Relocations and relocations accompanied by expansion accounted for 82% of all leasing transactions during the period under review. Transactions driven by business expansion alone represented just 18%.
The most active tenant groups in the warehouse market were:
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Logistics operators — 42%.
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Wholesale and retail companies — 38%.
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Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies — 20%.
Heightened security risks are also reshaping the logistics strategies of major companies. Businesses are increasingly distributing inventory across multiple warehouse facilities, including locations in western Ukraine, to ensure business continuity.
Warehouse Shortage Increases Demand for Built-to-Suit Development
EXPANDIA expects the market to remain in a period of adjustment to substantial losses of warehouse infrastructure through the end of 2026.
According to Nataliia Sokyrko, Director of the Industrial and Logistics Department at EXPANDIA, the full impact of the destruction on tenant and developer strategies has yet to materialize.
"We expect demand for warehouse space to remain strong, driven both by the need to replace lost facilities and by underlying demand from key tenant groups. At the same time, the critically low level of available space is likely to constrain actual take-up volumes," said Nataliia Sokyrko.
In her assessment, the delivery of new properties will partially ease the shortage but will not fully compensate for the loss of warehouse stock.
Further development activity will largely depend on improvements in the security situation. Developers are also likely to remain cautious about speculative construction — warehouse projects developed without pre-committed tenants.
"Under these circumstances, built-to-suit developments tailored to the needs of specific tenants, as well as owner-occupied facilities, may become increasingly relevant for companies unable to secure suitable space on the open market," Sokyrko emphasized.
As a result, the Kyiv region's warehouse real estate market is entering the final months of 2026 amid a critical supply shortage, rising rental rates, and substantial demand for replacement logistics facilities.
