Ukraine’s primary residential real estate market is entering a new phase. Previously, developers sold “square meters” at the excavation stage, and buyers factored in an additional 6–12 months of renovation after commissioning. In 2025–2026, a different logic is taking shape: housing is increasingly being purchased as a completed product with a fixed economic model.
For investors, this signals changes in demand structure, sales velocity, and margins in the comfort-class segment.
Demand Outpaces Supply: The 2025 Imbalance
According to analysts at development company Intergal-Bud, the share of inquiries for developer-finished apartments has increased:
- 15–20% in 2023
- 35–45% in 2025
- 2026 forecast — 40–45%
At the same time, supply significantly lags demand. Of more than 2,500 listings analyzed, only about 4% of residential complexes in Kyiv offer apartments finished by the developer.
Investment takeaway:
The market is experiencing a shortage of finished product. Developers offering “renovated apartments” gain a competitive advantage both in sales speed and pricing.
Sales Velocity and Price Premium
Renovated apartments:
- sell 20–30% faster,
- are priced 20–40% higher than comparable unfinished units.
This allows developers to achieve:
- Faster capital turnover,
- Higher margins on the final product,
- Lower risk of unsold inventory after project completion.
For investors in development projects, this reduces cash gaps and increases cash flow predictability.
State-Driven Demand: The Role of the eOselya Program
More than 50% of demand for renovated apartments is generated within the framework of the state-backed “eOselya” mortgage program.
The reason is straightforward: buyers can include renovation costs within the loan principal. This means:
- the full housing cost is fixed upfront,
- no need for a separate loan or additional savings,
- reduced financial stress after moving in.
Market effect: the state program effectively encourages the shift from a “concrete shell” model to a finished product model.
Why Buyer Behavior Is Changing
1. Rising Renovation Costs
In 2025:
- construction and installation works increased by nearly 6%,
- materials and services rose by 10–30%,
- tiles: +18–30%,
- plumbing fixtures: +20%,
- laminate flooring: +15%,
- paints: +10%,
- drywall: +10–15%,
- insulation materials: +15–20%.
Amid high budget volatility, buyers increasingly opt for an “all-inclusive” model.
2. Labor Shortages
As of early 2026, more than 150,000 vacancies were publicly listed in the construction sector.
Shortages of:
- plasterers,
- tilers,
- electricians,
- plumbers
range from 30–45%.
This leads to:
- rising labor costs,
- extended timelines,
- challenges in coordinating renovation teams.
3. The Energy Factor
According to public data from energy system operators:
- in 2024, Kyiv experienced more than 1,950 hours of power supply restrictions,
- in 2025 (September–December) — an additional 600–800 hours,
- January–February 2026 — approximately 300–400 hours of emergency schedules.
For individual renovations, this means:
- delays,
- additional costs for lifting materials,
- schedule disruptions.
Meanwhile, developer construction sites are equipped with generators, allowing finishing works to proceed without interruption.
The Economics for the Buyer
Individual renovation in 2025–2026:
- extends to 4–16 months,
- increases the budget by 12–18% due to unforeseen factors.
A developer-finished apartment:
- has a fixed price,
- offers a clear move-in timeline,
- minimizes cost escalation risks.
For buyers, this marks a shift from an investment-driven logic (“buy cheaper and renovate independently”) to a risk-management logic.
Secondary Market Confirms the Trend
On the secondary market:
- more than 60% of transactions involve apartments with recent renovations,
- unfinished properties sell more slowly and often at a discount.
This confirms a broader shift in consumer behavior.
Outlook for 2026
Analysts forecast:
- demand for renovated apartments in the primary segment — up to 45%,
- share of transactions with quality renovations on the secondary market — up to 65–70%.
In 2025, we clearly observed a shift in buyer logic: people increasingly choose not square meters, but a finished product with a clear economic structure, notes Dmytro Izmailov.
Investment Focus
- Market product transformation. Developers are shifting from selling space to selling a completed residential product.
- Margin growth. A 20–40% renovation premium creates additional profitability with relatively controlled costs.
- Accelerated turnover. Sales are 20–30% faster, shortening the investment cycle.
- State-supported demand. The “eOselya” program reinforces the finished-apartment segment.
- Risks of individual renovation favor developers. Material inflation, labor shortages, and energy constraints push buyers toward turnkey solutions.
Conclusion
The years 2025–2026 are shaping a new model for Ukraine’s residential market.
Buyers are no longer investing in the “potential of square meters” — they are investing in a finished product with predictable costs and timelines.
For developers and investors, this implies:
- a shift in product strategy,
- the opportunity to increase margins,
- a transition toward a more structured, European-style housing sales model.
